You saw the news: Vladimir Putin was recently spotted at the 2022 Beijing Olympics. He made the journey because Xi Jinping had comped him for a couple of choice seats at the opening ceremonies.
Or not.
Most would agree that Putin is no dummy. He clearly has an agenda. His passion is to restore Russia to its former glory.
But how to do that? Not easy. Yes, Putin could posture on the borders of the Ukraine. Doing that, he would realize two immediate benefits. First, he would be exercising his troops in complex staging maneuvers, increasing unit proficiency in the process. Good move.
Second, he just might succeed in bullying the United States into agreeing to a concession regarding the presence of the NATO alliance in Central Europe. Again, a good move.
But wait. Do those two achievements move Putin any closer to re-establishing Russia as a dominant player on the world stage? No, they do not.
Back to the question of Putin’s presence in Beijing. Maybe he was there for something other than spectating. Maybe, just maybe, his presence in Beijing was intended to achieve other objectives. Consider the following.
Two days after the closing ceremonies, Russia launches an all-out invasion of the Ukraine. That, by itself, would not be a good move. Yes, Russian troops would over-run Ukrainian forces, but the Russians would not have adequate troop strength to pacify and absorb Ukraine back into Russian control.
But what would happen if the Chinese were to simultaneously launch an attack on Taiwan? Ah, now we are getting somewhere.
The United States does not currently have the capacity to engage in two wars, on two distant fronts, at the same time.
Therefore, the United States would be paralyzed and unable to respond to such a coordinated attack, giving Russia time to deploy additional troops to pacify the Ukraine.
More important, in the confusion that would follow, there would be no unified outcry from the rest of the world.
Confusion, indecision, finger pointing. Many countries would see the weakness of the United States and would jump to do side deals with both Russia and China.
Putin succeeds in realizing his long-held desire to elevate Russia as a dominant world power, and China satisfies its dream of returning Taiwan to Chinese control.
So maybe Putin was not wasting his time in Beijing.
We do, indeed, live in interesting times.
Scary thought.